Saturday, May 15, 2010

Let's mix this up a little bit...

Alright, time to mix it up a little bit. Usually I just send THE PETE SHEETS out to subscribers but since I'm so presently swamped with the business aspects of this one man show, I thought today was as good a day as any to do a shortened version and make it available to everyone through the blog.

Flamboro, Georgian and Woodbine are the three featured tracks today and here are a few horses and races of interest to THE PETE SHEETS:

At Flamboro...

Race 8
WARRAWEE HARDY isn't as one-dimensional as his last two might suggest and I'm not concerned with his starting in the second tier. The inside two that he follows are the fastest two from the gate and whether MacDonald moves him to the lead early or comes first-over, he's too good for these. None of these other horses have any interest in actually winning a horse race. While WARRAWEE HARDY isn't expected to pay much more than even money, the value that is often prevalent in Flamboro's exactors is worth chasing. Play strongest exactors using ESCAPETHEBREEZE, SPECTACULAR LINK and CANT BE CAUGHT and cover (proportionately) with a few using WESTERN COOKING and D M JORDAN. If you're playing the Late Pick Four, WARRAWEE HARDY is a single.

Race 10
MacDonald again, but on a longshot. MONKEY OFF MY BACK is a bad horse -- he's bad-gaited, makes breaks and has been an absolute disappointment since Coleman bought him last year. That being said, it seems that they've finally given up on him and dropped him into today's restricted claiming class where he'll face much more mediocre horses than he's ever seen. He's going to be an overlay because of the optics of his lines and if the seldom-seen, useful version of MONKEY OFF MY BACK shows up today, he can win. I'm not advising you to re-mortgage to have a bet on him but I just wanted to make you aware that he was going to be a much bigger price than several horses that he is actually a much better horse than if MacDonald can bring out the best in him. Use him in the Pick.

Race 11
Same thing here. DODGY DEALER's past performances are terrible. Terrible! To me, they're excusable because he's had awful (wide, tiring) trips in each of his last two. He's a better horse than any of these and he, too, is going to be an enticing overlay and is a much better option than less talented (and yet shorter-priced) horses like J MS STEALTH, AMERICAN HERO and REDD HOTT RUSTY.

At Georgian...

Race 10
FARMERS TUITION was absolutely robotic in her debut for this outfit, beating the very capable Keepers Destiny. This is a very beatable field of vulnerable, over bet regulars like LOVE N KISSES, MCKENNA SISTER, SIMPLY MAVELOUS and OSTINATO, who I actually think is the second best horse in the race. If you are offered anything close to the 6-1 Morning Line estimation on FARMERS TUITION at post time, you're making a great bet. I'm inclined to think that she'll be 5-2, which is still acceptable if you ask me.

Race 11
This has the potential to be a tricky race. Serial stopper, LANCE HALL, is going to be the favorite and I have to try to beat him. ROMEO STAR is a come-from-behind type that is a better horse than his 1 for 13 win record might lead one to believe. He stands to benefit from the projected collapsing pace scenario and is a better-priced alternative to the favorite. NUREYEV never wins and has a noticeable aversion to it, but he's experiencing dramatic class relief tonight and should have a much better result than those he's been achieving at Woodbine. I'm inclined to think that he'll be 2nd or 3rd, but even if he and the favorite does lose, you'll be in the black. This is a good race to make a few clever moves that don't include LANCE HALL on top.

Race 12
I don't know what happened in his last two starts, but I'm willing to overlook them tonight because PEENIE is just a much better horse than most of these. The Morning Line and projected favorite is ARTCHDUKE, a $15,000 claimer. You couldn't buy PEENIE for three times that price! Longshots RIVERWALK and AHEAD OFTHE CURVE are better than most of these, too, and are more imaginative must-use horses than the likes of the rail-starting favorite, UPBEAT SMILES and the perpetually over bet BLISSED OUT. This feels like a beatable race.

At Woodbine...

Race 3
MR COLE and MANNERHEIM are much better horses than any of the others and neither will be favored. Both have had very compromising, impossible trips lately, especially in their last starts where both ended up being beaten favorites. Those that took the plunge on either of them last time are impelled to come back to them tonight on a night when their respective prices will better while the competition is actually a little softer. They are the two you want in the Pick Threes involving this race.

Race 6
WINDSONG SOPRANO is a good horse. She made one million dollars last year while racing against the who's who of the three year-old filly division. Condren gave her a conservative steer in her first start back, one from which she had no chance to win. Her time for her own last three-quarters was (at the slowest) 1:26.0 and I'm confident that tonight is the night she'll be all systems go.

Race 10
This is a race that is more about a horse I don't like than it is one that I do. ROYAL MORN absolutely jogged on May 1 when he and MacDonald enjoyed an isolated lead that featured a very slow middle half. Because of the optics of that line, he's going to be bet off of the board tonight and I'm emploring you to stay away! He has the speed of PROVEN LOVER and BALANCHINE to his outside and won't have nearly the same idyllic dynamics that led to his win of two weeks ago. He's a one-dimensional, need-to-lead-to-win type that seems very up against it tonight. Even if MacDonald tactfully moves him to the lead once the aforementioned two settle, I'm confident that any one of the others will get the better of him when it counts. Save your money.

THE PETE SHEETS will return to regular circulation on Monday featuring the races from Grand River and Woodbine.

The list of subscribers is growing exponentially! If you'd like to be added to the mailing list, send such a request to It's a free service that is designed to increase the handle and general popularity of harness racing at Flamboro Downs, Georgian Downs, Grand River Raceway, Western Fair Raceway and the Woodbine Entertainment Group circuit by providing better information to the customers.

Good luck at the races today, gang!

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