Saturday, July 31, 2010

Flamboro's Saturday afternoon card...

Post time for this afternoon's 1pm card at Flamboro Downs is fast approaching! Good luck if you're playing the races today.

Race 3

1-SEDNA is inconsistent and races for a .109 barn, but I'm able to overlook those two negatives on a day when he's facing an absolutely despicable field of rivals. He's lone speed from the inside and has a great driver in young Zeron. The last time the pair drew well and were able to control the pace (May 26 @ FLMD), they won by open lengths over Lord Oliver N and M G Energik, either of which would be 2-5 in this race. A gate-to-wire win is predicted for the horse that THE PETE SHEETS are tabbing as the Most Probable winner of the day.

After the pick, there are only a few other horses even worth talking about. 6-CRUISING KYLER, 7-CANT WAIT TIL MAY and 9-CAVIART TEXAS are absolute tosses, leaving five underneath contenders.

I give slight preference to 2-FOURSTARZ TREASURE, 3-INDEPENDENT GUY and 5-SAN ANDREAS, but won't totally exclude 4-CROWE RIVER or 8-RAVENS RAIDER.

Race 4

Here's a beatable race! 2-GO MAN GO's last two have been very good and while he's no cinch, he shouldn't be worse than 2nd among these. The only horse that I think that has a shot at beating him is 1-CAMS OAK, who might trip-out and pick him up late. Might.

If you toss the outside two, 7-CASH LE RU and 8-TREND SPOTTER, you're left with five others to use in the underneath positions. Of those, 5-BAREITALL HANOVER and 9-LUCKY GIFT are preferred, the former because he's of more talent than most of the rest and the latter because he figures to be a forwardly placed recipient of a good trip behind 1-CAMS OAK and 2-GO MAN GO.

Let's take a shot at the Early Pick Four today:

$2.40 P4 2 with 234 with 136 with 467 = $64.80
$1.20 P4 2 with 1578 with 136 with 467 = $43.20
$1.20 P4 2 with 234 with 2578 with 467 = $43.20
$0.80 P4 2 with 1578 with 2578 with 467 = $38.40
$1.80 P4 1 with 234 with 136 with 467 = $48.60
$1.00 P4 1 with 1578 with 136 with 467 = $36.00
$1.00 P4 1 with 234 with 2578 with 467 = $36.00
$0.60 P4 1 with 1578 with 2578 with 467 = $28.80
Total investment: $339.00

You might want to fool around with the numbers a little bit and perhaps even invest less. I'll leave that up to you!

Race 8

With 1-TYPECAST, 2-SERENA DRUMMOND and 6-B B WINDFALL expected to attract plenty of support, 3-SEALCREST PENNY impresses me as being a very good Value Play. She was very good at Grand River on Wednesday night and I would go as far as to say that she might've won the race if not for suffering interference and other compromising dynamics. Play her for 1st and 2nd with the aforementioned three and maybe play some smaller savers with 8-RISQUE BUSINESS.

Here are some suggestions for the Late Pick Four:

$1.60 P4 123 with 15 with 129 with 49 = $57.60
$0.80 P4 123 with 15 with 458 with 49 = $28.80
$0.80 P4 123 with 15 with 129 with 568 = $43.20
$0.40 P4 123 with 15 with 458 with 568 = $21.60
Total investment: $151.20

Race 9

Two horses standout in this race. 1-MATHERS VALLEY showed marked improvement when winning her Pereira debut last time and I'm sure she'll be favored to repeat. She's a must-use in the multi-race wager, but I'm not sure I'd be in a big hurry to take a short price on her today. She's no killer, can't finish and is a prime example of a horse that you were supposed to have last time. 5-TACO is actually of more talent than her, but her breaking tendencies make her hard to trust.


Race 10

9-EXOTIC MAN RJ seems like a good Value Play in a race where the relatively useless, 2-D J ADONIS (Beatable Favorite)figures to be even money or less. The Yates trainee makes his third start off of the shelf after having compromising (impossible) trips in his first two for the new barn.

4-ENDURING SPIRIT is another less obvious horse of interest. He wasn't nearly as bad as his last line suggests, but had no chance of improving his position while being blind-switched for the entire last quarter. He's reunited with MacDonald today and impresses me as being a Live Longshot.

You can infer from my Late Pick Four suggestions as to which of the others I think are contenders, but they are obvious horses that anyone can pick. As such, their prices aren't expected to be true reflections of their real chances of winning. In these races for inconsistent, mediocre, restricted claimers, it often pays to stay away from favorites and gamble on other more imaginative horses.


Live Longshot: 4-ENDURING SPIRIT (10th)

Most Probable Winner: 1-SEDNA (3rd)

Show Parlay: 8-D C JUDGE (2nd)
1-SEDNA (3rd)
2-GO MAN GO (4th)
4-MS REDD (7th)

Value Plays: 3-SEALCREST PENNY (8th)
9-EXOTIC MAN RJ (10th)

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