Saturday, July 17, 2010

Super Saturday...

Rockin Image, that's my Meadowlands Pace pick. I have no argument with anyone that sides with Rock N Roll Heaven, but Rockin Image seems like the "now" horse to me. His last two have been absolutely robotic and it just feels to me like he's ideally drawn and has a tactical advantage on the other son of Rocknroll Hanover and the others. It should be a hell of a race, maybe even better than The North America Cup!

As for Sportswriter, I'm afraid I'm out. I know he had systemic problems leading up to last week's race and that he's reported to be doing much better this week, but I can't fathom any horse winning from post ten in a field as deep as this one, regardless of the obscure stat that the outside rail is actually the winningest post position in Meadowlands Pace history.

If you're looking for a sleeper, my sources tell me that Kyle Major has had the best week he's had in awhile and that he's sitting on a big race.

Really, Nova Artist is the only horse that looks outmatched, but how can anyone rule out any horse trained by Sweet Lou after the two-year run he's had? Projected post time for the million-dollar affair is 9:20pm ET. Enjoy it!

If you can't wait until tonight to see some familiar faces racing south of the border, tune in to coverage of this afternoon's races from The Meadows. Gregg McNair's Aracache Hanover is racing in a division of the PaSS and his son, Doug, is there to drive. The colt has won three in a row and has quickly stamped himself as a Grand Circuit type. He's drawn post eight in the 6th, for which post time is estimated to be 2:35pm ET. Aracache Hanover is 9-2 on the Morning Line and if you get anything close to that price at post time, it's the best bet you'll make all year! I think he's the best and will be watching with interest.

Flamboro is the first Canadian harness track to get underway today and there is only one horse (race) that interests me. You'll have to wait until the 10th, but 9-SCOTIAN DELIGHT lays over the field. Use 1-NEVER ENUFF LUCK, 4-MATOU ROSE, 5-M G ENERGIK and 6-CANT BE CAUGHT underneath and pad your account heading into the evening races.

I have to tell you -- the card at Mohawk tonight could not be better, both from a quality standpoint and a betting one. There are three eliminations of The Canadian Breeders' Championship for three year-old pacing colts, one for trotting colts of the same age, as well as single prep races for both the Roses Are Red Stakes and The Maple Leaf Trot. The $42,000 Open pace has been carded as the 10th.

Here are some notes pertaining to tonight's card from Campbellville:

Race 2
6-DALHOUSIE DAVE will be heavily favoured and I can't pick against him. He'll lose one of these nights, because they all do, but I don't think it'll be tonight. 3-TWIN B WARRIO and 4-BIG BAY POINT are the best of the rest and throw 1-CODE WORD and 5-TERROR TIME in as 3rd-place savers.

Race 3
Another reliable favourite -- 3-TEXT ME. He had a compromising trip in the Gold Final at Georgian but should enjoy much better circumstances tonight. He's the speed of the field and will have a distinct tactical advantage on his main rivals. 8-DONTGETINMYWAY is a great horse himself, but he's drawn outside tonight and will likely be far back in the early going. Expect him to make a big late move, but I'm dubious as to whether it will be enough to have him repeat. 2-STORMONT TRIGGER and 5-QUANTUM STARSHIP are the other underneath contenders.

Race 4
Want a Live Longshot? 8-FOOLISH JUSTICE makes his fourth start for Menary, gets McNair for the first time and has had trip excuses in his first three for the new barn. He'll be a big price, should enjoy favourable dynamics and I don't mind taking a small shot on him. You'll remember that 1-PLUMB DUFF was a horse that THE PETE SHEETS projected to win last week, but that was the wedding -- tonight is the funeral. He moves up in class, draws inside of other speed types and will be offered at a drastically reduced price. I'm out tonight.

Race 6
4-BAY OF SHARKS is rounding into top form and has raced deceptively well against much better company in his last several. He drops in class tonight and seems like one of the card's most reliable plays.

Race 7
Okay, this is where many of you will think I'm crazy because I don't want anything to do with 9-DREAMFAIR ETERNAL tonight! She draws outside against the deepest field she's faced in Canada in awhile and it just feels like she'll have to be as good as ever to win. She's 5-2 on the Morning Line, but we all know that she'll be 3-5 and so even if she does win, she won't pay anything. Why not take a shot on one of the American invaders -- 1-CHANCEY LADY, 2-GINGER AND FRED (who was as good as I've seen her in awhile in her most recent at YR) or 4-TUG RIVER PRINCESS?

Race 9
I'm a huge fan of 4-FUTURE MILLION and this is the most beatable field he's faced all year. He beat himself last week, which he's done in the past, but if he fires his best tonight, these won't see which way he went.

Race 10
Please, please, please don't get sucked in on 3-MAJOR HOTTIE! He's a lovely horse, but all of these are, and his most recent win was one of the most dressed up in the history of the sport. Kudos to Christoforou for stealing the race last time, but under less idyllic circumstances, this horse isn't nearly the force that those paper optics might suggest. He might win, but he'll be ridiculously overbet if he does. I'm leaving him out of the Late Pick Four.

Race 13
Live Longshot, 9-SHADYWOOD BARON, is a better horse than his recent lines suggest and he's a worth a shot in the finale at tonight's overlay odds. His lack of gate speed is disheartening, but if he gets any kind of pace to chase, expect him to come screaming home for Brewer.

There are a few races of interest at Georgian Downs tonight, too. Post time is 7:25pm ET.

Race 4
3-GIRLS WILLB GIRLS makes her second start for Fellows and her debut is a very good frame of reference because she finished a respectable 3rd behind McCloud and Stormont Trigger, either of which would be 1-5 in this spot. She might prove to be overbet tonight but she sure seems too good for these if she repeats her July 5 effort.

Race 5
Listen, I know post eight is a difficult one at Georgian, but I still don't mind having a few bucks on 8-BEECHWOOD TIGER tonight. He has been facing horses that would be 1-9 if they were in this race and the paper optics of his efforts don't do him much justice because he actually hasn't been that bad. Exploiting overlays is the only way to make money gambling on horses. Play him for 1st and 2nd.

Race 8
7-ALLAMERICAN SWIFT drops to a new low and if she can't beat these horses, they might as well breed her.

Race 11
Similar to the situation in the 5th, this race's most talented horse draws outside and should be offered at odds that are bigger than they should be. 9-MY JEWELS has been keeping good company at Mohawk and this is a distinct class drop for him. Had he drawn three spots to the left he'd be 2-1, but his post time odds should be better than that because of the outside draw.

Have a great day everyone! Enjoy the races!

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